Ming-Chi Kuo just released a new market report on Apple in December 2024, showing a sharp decline in sales year-over-year in China. Compared to December 2023, Apple’s iPhone sales in the country slipped 10-12%.
Kuo believes the main culprit is the lack of innovation. The iPhone 16 series wasn’t well-received in China due to the minor improvements over the last generation. It’s important to note that Apple’s decline comes amid fairly stable market conditions in the country. The overall smartphone sales in China remained stable throughout December.
Looking ahead, Ming-Chi Kuo believes Apple will lose even more sales in the first half of 2025. The launch of the upcoming iPhone SE4 won’t be enough to offset the poor sales performance due to the limited impact the SE lineup usually has.
Kuo isn’t very optimistic about the iPhone 17 lineup either. With rumors suggesting the new iPhone 17 series will exclusively rely on eSIM with no physical SIM support, Ming-Chi Kuo believes the Chinese market won’t respond well. Not all carriers in the country offer eSIM support, so it will be a challenge for some users.
The analyst’s predictions see a total of 225 million iPhone sales in 2025 worldwide, which will slightly increase over 2024’s 220 million shipments but still fall short of the expected 240 million units.
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