Sunday assorted links

1. David Friedman reminiscences about his earlier colleagues.

2. John Arnold, on the debt.

3. South Africa vs. Nigeria.

4. Chinese local government financing vehicles.

5. “A comparison between the electoral risk estimates (based on option prices) and the actual post-electoral volatility of stock market returns, indicates that hedging against election risk has become increasingly expensive over time. Finally, an examination of the 2016 presidential election suggests that options markets may provide more reliable estimates of electoral uncertainty than election forecasts based on public opinion polls and/or prediction markets.”  Link here.

6. Voters don’t seem to hate the idea of nuclear attacks.

7. Scott Sumner’s amusing take from visiting AI circles in SF.

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