US CLARITY Act 2026 Odds ‘Extremely Low’ If Not Passed Before April: Exec

The US CLARITY Act, which aims to bring greater regulatory clarity to the crypto industry, may have little chance of passing this year if it doesn’t move forward within the next seven weeks, according to a crypto executive.

“If CLARITY doesn’t pass committee by the end of April, odds of passage in 2026 become extremely low,” Galaxy Digital head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said in an X post on Saturday.

“This needs to hit the Senate floor by early May… floor time is running out, and odds diminish every day that passes,” Thorn said. It comes after US Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he doesn’t expect the chamber to act on the digital asset market structure legislation before April, as it will prioritize the SAVE America Act, which would require voters to provide proof of US citizenship in person to register.

Stablecoin rewards debate may not be the last hurdle

Thorn said the main perceived holdup for the CLARITY Act is the debate over whether stablecoin rewards will disrupt the traditional banking system — which has split the banking and crypto industry — but warned that more issues could surface after that debate is settled.

“It’s very possible that rewards are not the ‘final’ hurdle but instead just the current hill the bill is dying on,” Thorn said, pointing to potential issues around DeFi, developer protections, and regulatory authority.

US Senator Angela Alsobrooks, a key Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, recently said that crypto and banking lobbies will both have to accept compromises. “All of us will probably walk away just a little bit unhappy,” she said on Tuesday.

CLARITY Act may not pass until 2029, says investment bank

Some lawmakers had been optimistic about an April timeline. Crypto-friendly US Senator Bernie Moreno said on Feb. 19 that the CLARITY Act could make its way through Congress, “hopefully by April.”

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However, investment Bank TD Cowen warned in January that crypto market structure legislation may not pass until 2027, and might take effect in 2029, if Democratic lawmakers manage to stall the vote beyond the midterm elections and regain power in at least one chamber of Congress.

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump criticized banks for stalling the Senate’s crypto market structure bill amid disagreements over stablecoin yield payments. “The US needs to get Market Structure done, ASAP,” Trump said on Mar. 4.

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